Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 4:

  • The US Dollar has consolidated its losses following the third consecutive disappointing data with EUR/USD falling to hit 1.10. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the services sector fell to 52.6, a three-year low. The accumulation of weak data has pushed bond yields lower and safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen and Gold higher. Markets now face the most-significant figure – Non-Farm Payrolls. A moderate increase of around 145,000 jobs is expected for September, but real expectations may be lower.  Bloomberg’s “whisper number” stands at 125,000. Wage growth is expected to rise by 3.2% yearly. Previews:
    US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Gathered clouds
    Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Meager job growth likely – Five EUR/USD scenarios
  • Richard Clarida, Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve, has said that global economic weakness is weighing on the US economy. He reiterated that the Fed is data-dependent and will act as appropriate. Chair Jerome Powell will speak just before markets close for the week and may hint a rate cut later this month. Odds show an 87% chance of a cut.
  • Brexit: The EU is “unconvinced” by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposal that does not fully eliminate a border in the island of Ireland. GBP/USD has dropped from the highs above 1.24. According to press reports, the bloc has given Johnson until October 11 to come up with a new plan. The PM’s plan may have secured support at home, with around 30 Labour MPS potentially backing his accord, in addition to the Brexit hardliners in his party. Other reports suggest that Johnson has a “Plan B” which reverts back to the original Irish backstop, but adds a time-limit – which is unlikely to fly with the EU.
  • Impeachment: President Donald Trump has called on Ukraine and China to investigate potential rival Joe Biden while he is under investigation for using the powers of his office for political means. Support for impeaching Trump is gradually on the rise but remains insufficient to move Republicans against their standard-bearer. Political uncertainty has been adding to market pain.
  • AUD/USD has advanced despite a small miss in retail sales numbers, 0.4% in August.
  • US stocks and oil prices have recovered from their lows.
  • Cryptocurrencies have been losing some ground with Bitcoin edging closer to $8,000.


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